Analysis

2026 Market Events

Calendar dates that can shift market flow depending on the data versus expectations.

U.S. jobs report

Strong but not overheated hiring can support earnings; a very hot report can lift yields, while a weak report can raise recession risk.

High impactLabor

June CPI inflation

Cooler inflation can support risk assets; hotter inflation can pressure stocks and crypto through higher rate expectations.

High impactInflation

FOMC rate decision

A softer policy tone can support liquidity; a more restrictive tone can pressure valuations and risk appetite.

High impactFed

Q2 GDP advance estimate

Growth above expectations can support earnings confidence; weak growth can raise slowdown concerns.

Medium impactGrowth

July CPI inflation

Cooler inflation can improve September positioning; hotter inflation can weigh on stocks and crypto.

High impactInflation

August jobs report

A balanced jobs print can support a soft-landing view; extreme strength or weakness can unsettle rate and growth expectations.

High impactLabor

FOMC decision and projections

Lower projected rates can support risk appetite; higher projected rates can reset valuations into Q4.

High impactFed

September CPI inflation

This inflation print can shape expectations before the late-October Fed meeting.

High impactInflation

FOMC rate decision

Policy tone may move yields, dollar strength, equity multiples, and crypto liquidity in either direction.

High impactFed

Q3 GDP advance estimate

A positive growth surprise can support cyclicals; a weak reading can pressure broad market confidence.

Medium impactGrowth

U.S. midterm elections

Results can shift expectations around taxes, regulation, deficits, and sector leadership.

High impactPolicy

October CPI inflation

Post-election inflation data can quickly shift rate and dollar expectations depending on the surprise.

High impactInflation

November jobs report

The final major labor read before the December Fed decision can change the market's rate-path view.

High impactLabor

FOMC decision and projections

Year-end Fed projections can set the first-quarter narrative for liquidity, rates, and valuations.

High impactFed

November CPI inflation

A key inflation print for year-end yields, dollar moves, and valuation pressure depending on the surprise.

High impactInflation